{"id":4485,"date":"2015-01-02T16:30:51","date_gmt":"2015-01-02T14:30:51","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.caperay.com\/blog\/?p=4485"},"modified":"2015-01-02T16:30:51","modified_gmt":"2015-01-02T14:30:51","slug":"biological-bad-luck","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.caperay.com\/blog\/biological-bad-luck\/","title":{"rendered":"Biological Bad Luck"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- Facebook Like Button v1.9.6 BEGIN [http:\/\/blog.bottomlessinc.com] -->\n<iframe src=\"http:\/\/www.facebook.com\/plugins\/like.php?href=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.caperay.com%2Fblog%2Fbiological-bad-luck%2F&amp;layout=standard&amp;show_faces=false&amp;width=300&amp;action=like&amp;colorscheme=light&amp;font=arial\" scrolling=\"no\" frameborder=\"0\" allowTransparency=\"true\" style=\"border:none; overflow:hidden; width:300px; height: 30px; align: left; margin: 2px 0px 15px 0px\"><\/iframe>\n<!-- Facebook Like Button END -->\n<p>Two scientists at Johns Hopkins University \u2013\u00a0applied mathematician Cristian Tomasetti and cancer biologist Bert Vogelstein \u2013\u00a0were having a brainstorming session in Baltimore recently. They were\u00a0contemplating the age-old question: What proportion of cancer is caused by\u00a0environmental factors and how much is due to genetics?\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/content\/347\/6217\/12.full\" target=\"_blank\">Tomasetti realised<\/a>\u00a0they\u00a0first needed to answer the question: What\u00a0proportion of cancer is the result of\u00a0chance? The researchers have provided an answer to this latter question in\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/content\/347\/6217\/78.abstract\" target=\"_blank\">a\u00a0paper published today<\/a>\u00a0in\u00a0<em>Science<\/em>\u00a0with the revealing title, \u201cVariation in cancer\u00a0risk\u00a0among tissues can be explained by the number of stem cell divisions.\u201d<a href=\"https:\/\/www.caperay.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Shutterstock_Cell_Division.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"alignright size-full wp-image-4492\" src=\"https:\/\/www.caperay.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Shutterstock_Cell_Division.jpg\" alt=\"\" width=\"250\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.caperay.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Shutterstock_Cell_Division.jpg 994w, https:\/\/www.caperay.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Shutterstock_Cell_Division-150x150.jpg 150w, https:\/\/www.caperay.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Shutterstock_Cell_Division-298x300.jpg 298w\" sizes=\"(max-width: 994px) 100vw, 994px\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p>Tomasetti and Vogelstein hypothesized that\u00a0there should be a strong, quantitative correlation between the lifetime number\u00a0of divisions among a particular class of cells within each organ and the\u00a0lifetime\u00a0risk of cancer arising in that organ. In order to test their\u00a0prediction, they identified tissues for which the number and dynamics of stem cells\u00a0have been described, arguing that only\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Stem_cell\" target=\"_blank\">stem cells<\/a>, which have\u00a0the ability to\u00a0self-renew and are responsible for tissue homeostasis, have the capacity to\u00a0initiate a tumour.<\/p>\n<p>Through an\u00a0extensive search of the literature, they identified 31 tissue types for which\u00a0stem cells had been quantitatively assessed (breast tissue was not one of the\u00a0types identified, unfortunately). The\u00a0lifetime risk of cancer for each tissue\u00a0was extracted from the\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/seer.cancer.gov\/data\/\" target=\"_blank\">SEER database<\/a>. They then plotted, on a logarithmic\u00a0scale, the total number of stem cell divisions during the average lifetime of a\u00a0human on\u00a0the x axis versus the lifetime risk for cancer of that tissue type on\u00a0the y axis.<\/p>\n<div class=\"img alignleft wp-image-4495 size-full\" style=\"width:350px;\">\r\n\t<a title=\"AAAS\" href=\"https:\/\/www.caperay.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Science_Cancer_Risk.jpg\" target=\"_blank\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.caperay.com\/blog\/wp-content\/uploads\/2015\/01\/Science_Cancer_Risk.jpg\" alt=\"\u00a9 Science by AAAS.\" width=\"350\"  \/><\/a>\r\n\t<div>\u00a9 Science by AAAS.<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\n<p>As seen in the figure (left), there was a high\u00a0correlation between these two very different parameters, extending across five\u00a0orders of magnitude and applying to cancers with enormous differences in\u00a0incidence. For example, colon cancer, with\u00a0<span class=\"Apple-style-span\" style=\"color: #000000;\"><span class=\"Apple-style-span\">10<\/span><span class=\"Apple-style-span\"><sup>12<\/sup><\/span><\/span>\u00a0stem cell divisions over a\u00a0lifetime, is far more common than cancer of the duodenum that has\u00a0<span class=\"Apple-style-span\" style=\"color: #000000;\"><span class=\"Apple-style-span\">10<\/span><span class=\"Apple-style-span\"><sup>10<\/sup><\/span><\/span>\u00a0divisions.\u00a0The correlation coefficient of 0.81 suggests\u00a0that 65% of the differences in\u00a0cancer risk can be explained by the total number of stem cell divisions in\u00a0those tissues, and so the stochastic effects of DNA replication would appear to\u00a0be the major\u00a0contributing factor to cancer in humans.<\/p>\n<p>Most\u00a0cancers would therefore appear to be the result of biological bad luck, with\u00a0<a href=\"http:\/\/www.sciencemag.org\/content\/347\/6217\/12.full\" target=\"_blank\">Vogelstein commenting<\/a>, \u201cThese cancers are going to keep on coming.\u201d He believes\u00a0that more resources should therefore\u00a0be channelled into diagnosing cancer in\u00a0its infancy.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Two scientists at Johns Hopkins University \u2013\u00a0applied mathematician Cristian Tomasetti and cancer biologist Bert Vogelstein \u2013\u00a0were having a brainstorming session [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_s2mail":"yes","_uf_show_specific_survey":0,"_uf_disable_surveys":false,"footnotes":""},"categories":[1],"tags":[16,22,39,46,54,77,95],"class_list":["post-4485","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-uncategorized","tag-breast_cancer","tag-cells","tag-epidemiology","tag-genetics","tag-journal_article","tag-risk","tag-tumour"],"aioseo_notices":[],"aioseo_head":"\n\t\t<!-- All in One SEO 5.0.0.1 - aioseo.com -->\n\t<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Two scientists at Johns Hopkins University \u2013 applied mathematician Cristian Tomasetti and cancer biologist Bert Vogelstein \u2013 were having a brainstorming session in Baltimore recently. 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